Want to Win Betting on the NFL? Fade the Chicago Bears

  • The Bears have only won five of their last 25 regular-season games
  • Betting against the Bears’ spread every game would lead to huge profits
  • More bets were recorded on the Bears to win the NFC North than any team
  • Chicago has a chance to vie for the number one pick and Caleb Williams
Walter Payton statue outside of Soldier Field
Betting against the Chicago Bears is one of the most profitable approaches in sports. [Image: Shutterstock.com]

The misery of the Chicago Bears

Making money betting on the NFL is a complicated endeavor that requires constant research and analysis and staying ahead of trends—or betting against the Chicago Bears. 

since 2022 alone, Bears opponents are 17-7-1 against the spread

The Bears have been the most profitable team to fade based on every one-year period since 2018. Since 2022 alone, Bears opponents are 17-7-1 against the spread, which (assuming -110 odds) would yield nearly 850% profit.

So even if it’s tough being a Bears fan, it can also be a money maker. Now let’s talk about how it got so bad for Chi-town.

Hitting rock bottom

Following their 30-13 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, the Bears are 2-5-1 against the spread and 2-6 straight-up. That’s tied for the third-worst record in the entire NFL, and to make matters worse, they’re down starting quarterback Justin Fields, who dislocated the thumb on his throwing hand a couple of weeks ago.

Optimism was available in abundance for Bears fans over the summer even though they finished 3-14 in 2022. Fields was the team’s first top-10 MVP candidate since Jay Cutler in 2014 and, according to PointsBet, received a higher ticket and handle percentage to win the MVP than Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes.

The Bears also received more bets to win the NFC North than any team in the division following
Aaron Rodgers’ departure from the Green Bay Packers. That’s despite having the longest odds to claim the NFC North title and only receiving a win projection of 7.5.

Needless to say, a 2-6 start is not promising for those hopes. Their winning percentage suggests they’ll win just four games this season, plus Fields is now +25000 and climbing to win the MVP.

Chicago is yet to have a winning season since it went 12-4 but lost in the Wild Card round of the playoffs in 2018. Not only have they lost games, but they’ve been dominated.

Assuming -110 odds, here’s how much money a $100 bet against the Bears’ spread in every game would have won.

  • Since 2022: $840.53
  • Since 2021: $1,245.20
  • Since 2020: $1,263.30
  • Since 2019: $2,054.10
  • Since 2018: $1,308.60

Hoping for change

The fall of the Monsters of Midway has not come without attempts at change. The front office has brought in new coaching regimes, swapped out personnel, and invested draft picks and money in free agency, but nothing has seemed to stick.

Despite drafting Fields with the 11th pick three years ago, many Chicagoans believe the key to turning their franchise around is drafting USC quarterback and reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams with the top pick in the draft, should they be given the chance to make the first selection.

However, there is growing concern over Williams’ outlook as a pro. He dominated his first two seasons as a college starter but has played three uninspiring-to-terrible games in a row, losing two and throwing three touchdowns and three interceptions in the process.

only three of their nine remaining games are against teams with winning records

It isn’t impossible for the Bears to turn their season around. Only three of their nine remaining games are against teams with winning records, and two of those are against their divisional rivals, the Detroit Lions. But the chances of that happening are buried below the basement.

Chicago is already listed as a seven-point underdog against the New Orleans Saints in Week 9 at most major sportsbooks. They’re favored in three games the rest of the season at the time of writing: in Week 10 against the Carolina Panthers, Week 16 against the Arizona Cardinals, and Week 17 against the Atlanta Falcons. 

Good luck to anyone betting the Chicago Bears the rest of the season, but history says not to expect much.

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