As President Donald Trump prepares to give his fourth State of the Union (SOTU) address, bettors are spending millions on predicting what he will say during a monologue expected to last well over one hour.
President Trump’s prior SOTU’s have clocked in at 1:20, 1:22, and 1:18, in 2018, 2019, and 2020, respectively.
On Polymarket, Tuesday’s SOTU market has 43% of bettors wagering Trump’s speech lasts as long as 1:40. The live event offers a multitude of prop bets, and was given extra spice by a White House post on X promising the speech: “Will be EPIC”:
Trending topics like the arrests of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor and Peter Mandelson, and ex-POTUS Barack Obama’s recent alien comments all have attracted markets on potential mentions in the SOTU address.
On Kalshi, 85% (Polymarket 84%) believe Trump will mention aliens, fueled by his recent vow to declassify UFOs on the back of Obama’s comments. Bettors placing $1,000 would win $1,160 on the mention.
Only 12% of Polymarket users believe the President will mention Jeffrey Epstein, despite the high-profile arrests in the UK. If someone bet $1,000 and Epstein was mentioned, the bettor would, however, walk away with $6,500.
Another market has 10% of Kalshi bettors believing Trump will say “discombobulator,” POTUS’ nickname for the high-tech weapon used in the US raid to snatch Venezuela’s deposed president Nicolas Maduro. If Trump utters the word, the bettor will make $10,000.
Less risky markets include Trump mentioning million, billion, or trillion over 15 times. On Kalshi, if POTUS hits his marks, a $1,000 wager will earn the bettor $1,130.
