Shaking up the online gambling space
As reported by the New York Times, two studies suggest prediction market users can more accurately forecast political events, economic data, and corporate earnings than professional analysts.
Kalshi has outspent DraftKings by about 35%
These findings come at a time when prediction market platforms are dramatically ramping up their marketing budgets. Kalshi has outspent DraftKings by about 35% and Polymarket in the US by approximately 19 times, according to new research.
Two studies look at prediction market users
A study from the National Bureau of Economic Research covering the past five years found that Kalshi users matched traditional forecasters when predicting economic indicators. They even outperformed experts on inflation.
Explaining this phenomenon, Johns Hopkins University economics professor Jonathan Wright, who co-wrote the study, said: “Getting information from a large pool of people can be a remarkably good form of forecasting.” A separate study from Yale and London Business School showed that Polymarket users predicted corporate earnings more accurately than full-time financial analysts.
aren’t subject to the conflicts of interest or reputational pressure that professional analysts face
Experts attribute this edge to the strong incentives prediction markets create for honesty. As bettors are risking their own money, they aren’t subject to the conflicts of interest or reputational pressure that professional analysts face. Bettors also self-select, often participating only when they feel confident. Economists, on the other hand, must regularly publish forecasts even when uncertainty is high.
Some economists argue that prediction markets merely reflect expert consensus rather than generate original insights. They also say that analysts still provide essential context and interpretation beyond raw numbers.
Explosive growth for Kalshi
Prediction markets have surged in popularity over the past 12 months, with Kalshi emerging as the clear winner and its growth shows no signs of slowing.
Kalshi’s downloads during Super Bowl week were 1,554% higher than in 2025, according to market intelligence firm Sensor Tower. Daily active users climbed to nearly two million on game day, reportedly three times more than BetMGM’s sportsbook audience on the same day.
activity on Kalshi for Super Bowl LX exceeded $1bn
Trading activity on Kalshi for Super Bowl LX exceeded $1bn, which is a 2,700% year-over-year increase. With basketball season underway and the upcoming FIFA World Cup on the horizon, analysts expect this momentum to continue.
One key driver of Kalshi’s success is aggressive marketing. Sensor Tower estimates it spends about 35% more than DraftKings, itself known for heavy advertising, and roughly 19 times more than Polymarket on US customer acquisition.
That said, traditional sportsbooks aren’t going anywhere. Sensor Tower data suggests DraftKings recorded around 5 million active users on Super Bowl Sunday. Executives from both DraftKings and FanDuel told CNBC they haven’t seen any cannibalization from prediction markets.
