Polymarket users are outraged after the prediction market platform didn’t categorize the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by US forces as an invasion. It said that a settlement of the market of an invasion happening by January 31 would only be possible if the US military actually takes control of Venezuelan territory.
President Donald Trump hasn’t ruled out further action in Venezuela if the interim government fails to comply with US conditions.
Polymarket said that a resolution will only come from “a consensus of credible sources.” The market had over $6m in betting volume, and the implied probability of an invasion spiked to 36% on Saturday before dropping to 4% by Wednesday morning. The comments section of the market contains more than 1,000 messages from disgruntled bettors. Many people reference a Financial Times article on the subject, and others complained about fairness.
account in question no longer appears on Polymarket, which suggests that it was deleted
Some Polymarket users profited handsomely from the invasion market, including one person who allegedly used insider information about the impending Maduro capture to profit by $410,000. They cashed out the healthy profit despite the market still being active. The value of their positions started at $0.07 per contract before rising rapidly after news broke of the US operation. The account in question is no longer visible on Polymarket, which suggests that it has been deleted.
