Markets reacted quickly
One word on social media can start the rumor mill turning at thousands of revolutions per minute. That’s what happened on Monday, when NBA legend LeBron James teased that he would reveal the “decision of all decisions” the following day, leading many to believe he was announcing his retirement.
the teaser heavily influenced betting markets
Unfortunately for the headline writers, James made no such announcement; he was just promoting a collaboration with the Hennessy cognac brand. But the teaser heavily influenced betting markets, causing odds on a retirement announcement to soar the day before the disappointing (to some) reveal.
On Kalshi, which displays a chart showing historic price movement, bettors pegged the chances of LeBron James announcing his retirement before the 2026-2027 season at about 18% heading into Monday. With his big teaser tweet, though, those odds skyrocketed to over 40%.
After Hennessy revealed that the hype was all just an advertisement, the odds on Kalshi quickly dropped, though at 32%, they are still well above what they were before all the hoopla.
Hearkening back to 2010
The timeline spanned less than 24 hours. A little before 2pm ET on Monday, October 6, James tweeted: “The decision of all decisions. October 7th. 12pm EST,” followed by the salute emoji and crown emoji (his nickname is King James) and “#TheSecondDecision.”
Attached to the tweet was a short video of him sitting down in a chair across from someone who looks like an interviewer. It was all made to mimic his infamous 2010 television special, “The Decision,” in which he announced that he was leaving his home state Cleveland Cavaliers to join the Miami Heat. Thus, since that was a gigantic career move, many thought his “decision of all decisions” was going to be to say he was retiring, likely after the coming NBA season.
Hennessy beat James to the punch, posting the new “decision” video at 10:31am ET on Tuesday, October 7. It did echo his 2010 “The Decision” fiasco, down to the “I’m taking my talents to….” phrase, but in the end, it was all a promotion for a special limited-edition orange Hennessy bottle featuring James’ likeness.
Ticket prices jumped
It wasn’t just the betting markets that got spooked when James posted his teaser on Monday. After the tweet, some fans (or resale speculators) rushed to buy tickets to the final Lakers home game of the season, scheduled for April 12, 2026 against the Utah Jazz.
According to TickPick, the cheapest seats surged from $85 per ticket to $445 on the secondary market. ESPN cited ticket broker Vivid Seats as saying that single tickets started at $580. The absolute cheapest pairs of tickets were $760.
It appears that people still aren’t willing to part with their inflated-priced tickets for much less just yet. On Vivid Seats and through the Lakers’ official Ticketmaster website, single resale tickets are still around $500 each.
