Death or fold?
Every time my Twitter notifications blow up, I know one of two things has happened. Either someone I know very well has died, or someone somewhere has folded Aces pre-flop and people want to know my opinion. I could say I’m not sure why I am the guy the bat signal goes up for every time someone folds Aces, but of course I do. The cover illustration of my first book Poker Satellite Strategy literally shows aces being folded.
I was relieved to see it was because someone had folded Aces
The most recent notification blowup came last week, and I was relieved to see it was because someone had folded Aces rather than died.
On this occasion, the fold came on the final table of the World Series of Poke Online Event #7: $215 Mystery Millions — $1M Top Bounty.
GGPoker alerted the poker world on social media:
Debate sparked
For once, some players showed understanding or at least sympathy for the fold given the size of the payjumps. On the Simplify Poker Academy, one user Milthon Boldewijn summed the sentiment up nicely:
“Tough one, the dilemma does remind of satellite tournaments in a way. I somewhat understand the fold. If 2 players bust you ladder 2 times at once. But if you call and the big stack would beat you in this situation you still ladder the same amount so that cancels that argument. You’re favored to win most of the time and the mystery bounties are still in play. So with the above in mind it feels like a slamdunk call and folding burns money. Why I do somewhat understand the fold has to do with the other stacks being short. So avoiding a clash and risking busting the tournament before the smaller stacks seems understandable. Winning vs CL does put you in a better position but it’s probably better to seek out the smaller stacks. I think I wouldn’t be able to fold Aces and if I did I would never show. CL knows you won’t ever retaliate against him, he is raising any 2 vs his opens I reckon.”
When someone asked me on the Facebook thread, I responded saying it looked like a very clear call to me – this isn’t a satellite.
Since then though, I ran the spot in Holdem Resourcee Calculator and… it’s still a very clear call. The call makes $67,900 so folding is a huge mistake. For what it’s worth, KK makes $43,900, QQ $39,700, JJ $28,900, TT $15,900, and 99 $5,780. Everything else is unprofitable (AKo loses $17,200). Almost always in those spots the big pairs are calls, and everything else a fold.
The exceptions
It’s worth noting that the presence of mystery bounties makes little or no difference at this stage. In bounty tournaments generally, the bounties cease to be a factor late on in the tournament. This is because at this stage a much higher percentage of the bounty pool has been paid out than of the normal prize pool.
the same principle applies: the bounties generally make very little difference at this point
Occasionally in a mystery bounty if the maximum prize remains in the bounty pool, it will affect ranges to some degree, although generally not as much as people think. In PKO’s, people often make the mistake of overvaluing the bounties, as the bounties seem to be large amounts in comparison to what they were earlier in the tournament. However, the same principle applies: the bounties generally make very little difference at this point.
Finally, somebody asked me on Twitter if Aces could ever be a fold in a non-satellite tournament. The answer is that in very rare cases, it might be okay to fold Aces, but the prize pool would have to be very very flat. As a general rule of thumb, it’s generally safe to assume that if it isn’t a satellite, you just can’t fold Aces pre-flop.
