Isak to the Reds still on?
Alexander Isak’s proposed move from Newcastle United to Liverpool has been English soccer’s story of the summer. It has dominated the back pages, despite it ultimately being a non-story.
The Swedish striker is now priced at +100 by some bookmakers to not play a single competitive club game throughout the 2025-26 season!
the Toon’s top goal-scorer
It’s a saga that reportedly goes back to early 2025, when Liverpool is said to have made a first tentative contact with Isak’s representatives, with a view of securing the signature of the Toon’s top goal-scorer over the course of the summer transfer window.
Essentially, it was enough to turn Isak’s head, and from thereon in, the Swede set his heart on becoming a Liverpool player for the 2025-26 season.
Toon standing firm
With Newcastle’s owners having lofty ambitions of their own, it was a move they never wished to sanction, so when the initial $149m bid came in from the Merseysiders, it was quickly dismissed.
Newcastle quickly made it known to Liverpool and any other prospective buyers that if they wanted to buy Isak, it would cost them a minimum of $203m, something that was dismissed by the Reds as a fee in excess of their valuation of the player.
And so a stalemate ensued – one that has run almost the full length of the summer transfer window, which closes on September 1.
A further twist came when Isak reacted badly to Newcastle turning down Liverpool’s offer, and, as of today, is still refusing to either play or train with Newcastle.
He made himself unavailable for the Toon’s opening two EPL games of the season and, as a result, has been asked by manager Eddie Howe to train with the club’s academy and youth players.
Owners broker peace talks
The club’s owners have tried to intervene in the last week and have attempted to broker some “peace talks,” but so far to no avail.
Ironically, part of Newcastle’s problem, and one of the reasons why they are unwilling to let Isak depart, is that they have been unsuccessful in bringing in a replacement for the Swede.
Howe had been using winger Anthony Gordon as an emergency striker
A $68m bid for Wolves centre-forward Jørgen Strand Larsen and a $54m bid for Brentford’s Yoane Wissa have both been unsuccessful, and Howe had been using winger Anthony Gordon as an emergency striker.
A further twist was that on Monday, when, ironically, the Toon played Liverpool in a fiery, tempestuous contest, Gordon was sent off for violent conduct and will now miss the next three games.
This, of course, makes the void left by Isak ever more pronounced, though they went some way to addressing this by agreeing to sign Stuttgart striker Nick Woltemade yesterday.
By any metric, this whole situation is a mess, and no one has emerged with any credit or honor.
Yet, what it has done is offer some fascinating betting opportunities in addition to a wager on Isak not playing a minute of competitive league soccer all season.
Next club Liverpool?
The odds obviously favor the Reds, and they will do everything possible to get a deal done ahead of Monday’s deadline, but what if the Toon hold firm?
conceivable he remains a Newcastle player on September 2
Newcastle has almost reached the point of blocking the deal to punish, in their eyes, Liverpool’s unreasonable pursuit of the player, and so it’s quite conceivable he remains a Newcastle player on September 2.
That then opens up the opportunity of a move in the January transfer window, where other European giants are likely to be interested in either a permanent or loan move.
Right now, French and European champions PSG are on offer at a generous +1200, which will almost certainly reduce on September 2 if he’s still a Toon player. You can get +1400 on any Saudi team, any Italian team at +1600 – both good value bets – and Bayern Munich is listed at +2500.
Hat-trick against Newcastle?
The flip side of the above is if a deal can be done, and he finally gets his dream move to Liverpool. Can he then replicate the form he showed last season when he scored 23 EPL goals?
And what happens when/if he comes face-to-face with his former teammates at Anfield on January 31, 2026? Already, some bookmakers are contemplating what could occur and are offering a juicy +5000 for the Swede to bag a hat-trick!
EPL leading goal-scorer?
An equally tempting market may be the EPL’s Golden Boot, awarded to the scorer of the most goals in a season in the English top flight.
Isak is still on offer at +1600
The usual suspects lead the betting with Erling Haaland the +100 favorite, closely followed by Mo Salah (+600) and Arsenal’s new striker, Viktor Gyokeres (also +600), but dig a little deeper and Isak is still on offer at +1600.
For me, that’s great value and well worth a wager, assuming the move finally goes through.
World Cup goals for Isak?
Finally, a market based on the deal not going through before September 1, but also on the fact that Sweden will still pick Isak for their World Cup Qualifying program.
They have been drawn in UEFA Group B alongside Switzerland, Slovenia, and Kosovo, with only the group winner going through automatically to next summer’s finals in the USA.
All the games take place in September, October, and November, so it is conceivable that Isak will end the season with more international goals than goals for his club. That is on offer at a reasonable +600, although it would, of course, be less likely if he were to secure a move in the January window.
He is also the favorite to be Group B’s leading scorer in qualification at +300.
All in all, the situation in which Isak finds himself is messy, but the discerning bettor could be in a position to make a few dollars out of the situation.
