Pivotal world events
The New York-based prediction market giant that famously raked in a reported $3.7bn in bets on the 2024 US Presidential Election is offering lines on the new Bishop of Rome following the death of Pope Francis.
As of late Monday, Polymarket’s online betting platform listed Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin as favorite to become the new Pope and head of the Roman Catholic Church, with a 34% win probability.
death of the popular pontiff came as a shock
Pope Francis passed away on Monday from a stroke and irreversible cardiovascular arrest. The death of the popular pontiff came as a shock after he made a rare public appearance before cheering crowds in Rome on Easter Sunday.
While a large portion of the world will mourn the passing of one of the most dynamic Popes of recent times, the selection of the next leader of 1.3 billion Catholics carries massive social, political, and economic significance.
Potential next Pope
While Polymarket lists Cardinal Parolin as the favorite to emerge as Pope from the Vatican’s next conclave, the papal election has for centuries been the subject of speculation and intrigue, meaning anything could happen.
Conducted in secrecy by the College of Cardinals, the iconclave is priceless for betting firms who have made a fortune on offering odds for the next Bishop of Rome, what name he’ll choose, and even how long the conclave will sit for.
In echoes of the Oscar-winning movie Conclave, an Italian seems the early political favorite, with Parolin, 70, the Vatican’s Secretary of State since 2013 often referred to as the “deputy pope.”
According to Polymarket, Filipino Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle, 67, is second-favorite to become Pope at 23%. While Parolin is seen as a ‘safe’ or moderate choice as Pope, the “Asian Francis” Tagle is focused on social justice.
The prediction platform, however, has Italian Cardinal Matteo Zuppi in third at 10% after overtaking Hungarian Péter Erdő overnight. Zuppi, 69, is believed to have been a favorite of the late Pope Francis and was trusted by the pontiff with a peace mission during year 2023 of the Russia-Ukraine war. Zuppi, like Parolin, carries strong political clout as serving President of the Episcopal Conference of Italy.
The progressive choice, Zuppi wrote a book in 2018 that the Church should seek dialogue and understanding with “our LGBT brothers and sisters.”
What next?
After a nine-day mourning period, the conclave is slated to start between May 1-3, with the College of Cardinals to announce the exact date after honors to the late Pope have been observed.
Once the conclave is in session, it will take a few days to announce a new Pope, with recent voting processes lasting between 1-5 days.
hasn’t deterred Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan from risking another potential FBI raid
While US residents can’t legally bet on the next Pope, it hasn’t deterred Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan from risking another potential FBI raid like he was subjected to in November after Donald Trump’s election for allegedly accepting bets from US users.
Polymarket has of Monday accepted $3.5m in bets on the next Pope with the money wagered spread among 18 possible pontiffs.
