Slow start to the season for Red Bull
For the opening ten races of the 2025 F1 season, Red Bull found itself in the unusual position of being part of the chasing pack. Not since 2020 had the Milton Keynes-based team been there.
Max Verstappen, the world drivers’ champion from 2021 through to 2024, found himself struggling to keep pace with the flying McLarens of Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris.
the odds of Verstappen making it four drivers’ championships in a row soared to +2000
The 2025 world drivers’ championship appeared to be a straight two-way fight between the two McLaren drivers, and after week 15 – Verstappen’s home Grand Prix at Zandvoort – he was a massive 104 points behind the championship leader Piastri and 70 points behind Norris. It looked like game over, and the odds of Verstappen making it four drivers’ championships in a row soared to +2000.
No fond farewell for Verstappen in Zandvoort
To compound his disappointment, Verstappen’s second place in Zandvoort meant not only did the Australian extend his lead in the drivers’ championship, but he missed the opportunity to win the final race on home soil. Next year, there is no Dutch Grand Prix in the F1 calendar.
Not only did things look gloomy for Verstappen’s chances, but the Red Bull team also struggled to function with its usual efficiency; the Christian Horner scandal from 2024 and its ensuing fallout still weighed heavily on the team.
But their car also struggled to perform consistently, with Verstappen complaining, on almost a race-by-race basis, of a lack of grip, down force, and of braking issues. The Red Bull was being overshadowed and outpaced by the McLarens at literally every turn.
But things took a turn for Red Bull on July 9, when it was announced that Horner had been asked to step down as Team Principal, to be replaced by Frenchman Laurent Mekies.
The Mekies effect
The impact wasn’t instant, and it took three races for Mekies to get his feet under the table and to start making his mark, but what has happened since round 16, the Monza Grand Prix, has been quite astonishing.
In a race that was expected to be dominated by the McLarens, Verstappen was at his masterful best, using all his skill and natural speed to beat Norris to the finish line and pick up the 25 points.
the McLarens were, at that stage, dismissive of a Red Bull comeback
It was the first tangible sign that the McLarens finally had a challenger, but even then, F1 pundits were seeing it as a one-off and merely ‘Max being Max’ and extracting speed out of the car on a track that suited it. Even the McLarens were, at that stage, dismissive of a Red Bull comeback, and Verstappen remained a big outsider for the title.
Baku success for Max
But the Dutchman proved that the win was no fluke by also winning round 17 around the streets of Baku, Azerbaijan. This time, it was not a checkered flag but a metaphorical red flag for the McLarens; proof that the Red Bull could not only outperform them over the long straights and fast corners of Monza but also around the tricky turns and tight corners of Baku.
With Piastri suffering a DNF (did-not-finish) after crashing on lap 6 and Norris finishing only seventh, not helped by a slow pit stop, these were the first bona fide signs that both McLarens were feeling the pressure of Verstappen’s emergence from the pack.
Verstappen emerges from the pack
With the McLarens now the hunted and Verstappen the hunter, the whole dynamic in the pit lane changed, and even McLaren wrapping up the constructors’ title in Singapore (round 18) did little to lighten the mood. While Verstappen didn’t win in Singapore – the race was won by the Mercedes of George Russell – he still finished second and, again, outscored both McLaren drivers.
couldn’t have gone better for Verstappen
The pressure on both ‘papaya’ drivers was again very evident. And so, last weekend, the pressure was again increased as the F1 bandwagon headed to Austin, Texas, for the US Grand Prix – a weekend that included a sprint race on the Saturday in addition to the main race on the Sunday. And it couldn’t have gone better for Verstappen.
From strength to strength
Not only did he win the sprint race and collect eight valuable points in the process, but both McLarens crashed out after a melee on the very first corner and so were point-less.
Doubly worrying for McLaren was Verstappen’s pace over the short race, something he was able to carry through to the main race, which he won again with an imperious drive, one reminiscent of his 2022 and 2023 dominance.
The good news for McLaren was that, at least, both cars were able to finish – Norris in second, Piastri in fifth – but the damage was done, and the Dutchman’s 33-point haul over the weekend has set up a nerve-shredding finale to the season over the final five races.
Hamilton fires McLaren warning shot
This weekend, they are in Mexico and, as Lewis Hamilton warned in one of Thursday’s press conferences, Verstappen, with the scent of a title in his nostrils, is a dangerous beast. One who will use every trick in the book on the track to give himself an advantage.
Verstappen is only one win away from becoming the new favorite
Piastri and Norris have been warned. Heading into this weekend, Piastri remains the favorite to win the world title (+175), but at +190, Verstappen is only one win away from becoming the new favorite.
Verstappen fancied by the bookies
The bookies believe that will happen, with the Dutchman listed as the +125 favorite for the race in Mexico City, with Norris as second favorite (+275), and Piastri third at +225.
What does now seem clear is that the drivers’ title is going to the wire, and any advantage enjoyed by the McLarens in the first half of the season has long since evaporated.
For F1 fans, this is going to be fascinating.
