Post-Midterm Election Betting Odds Back Ron DeSantis for 2024 Presidency

  • Election Tuesday has settled some of the uncertainty in the upcoming political picture
  • Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has the best odds of winning the 2024 presidency (+250)
  • DeSantis and former President Trump are tied in odds to win the Republican nomination
  • President Biden, who has confirmed he will run again, has odds of +400 to win in 2024
Ron DeSantis
After the midterm elections, Ron DeSantis is the odds-on favorite to become the 47th American president in 2024. [Image:]

As the dust settles

Now that the dust has settled after the midterm US elections held on Tuesday, sportsbooks have revisited their odds for the 2024 presidency and have painted an interesting picture. They have named Florida Governor Ron DeSantis as the favorite to win the 2024 election over once-removed President Donald Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden.

DeSantis is a +250 favorite

According to Paddy Power, DeSantis is a +250 favorite to end up in the Oval Office, while Trump is at +350. Current US President Biden, whose approval rating is at just 41.1% per FiveThirtyEight at the time of writing, rounds out the top three at +400.

If the sportsbooks are on the money with their calculations, chances are high that the 47th US president will be a Republican.

DeSantis or Trump

DeSantis struck a major victory earlier this week, securing another gubernatorial win in Florida with 59.4% of the votes swinging his way. He secured more than 4.5 million votes, while Democrat and challenger Charlie Crist ended with just 40% of the votes at just over 3 million. 

Not only that, DeSantis received almost 10% more backers than he did during his first campaign for Governor in 2018 when he defeated Andrew Gillum with 49.6% of the public vote.

Former President Trump was one of the many Florida residents that cast their vote for DeSantis Tuesday. While he was there, he informed news crews that a “major announcement” he had scheduled for November 15 would proceed as usual. He has since confirmed that the disappointing showing for several Republican candidates around the country has not deterred him.

Trump has teased a 2024 presidency run since before he left office but is still yet to declare himself as an official candidate. The consensus is that the “major announcement” will involve him declaring for the election, though Trump’s camp is remaining tight-lipped.

Current President Biden successfully ousted Trump from the White House in 2020 after earning 306 electoral votes—candidates only need to receive 270 to win the election. Biden received nearly 81.3 million votes, while Trump received 74.2m. Biden also flipped Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia from red in the 2016 election to blue, stealing 73 electoral votes. Trump did not flip any states.

Securing the nomination

While sportsbooks currently view DeSantis as the more likely candidate for President, he must first secure the Republican nomination. Strangely, his odds there are slightly worse in the battle against Trump.

DeSantis and Trump as +138 favorites to become the Republican nominee

Paddy Power lists both DeSantis and Trump as +138 favorites to become the Republican nominee. Mike Pence, Trump’s former vice-president, and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley are tied for third at a distant +1600. 

On the Democrat side, President Biden is the obvious favorite to advance to the final ballot at +150. California Governor Gavin Newsom (+500), Vice President Kamala Harris (+500), and US Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (+1200) are the top three candidates to replace Biden on the 2024 ballot if he were to decide not to run.

While Paddy Power and other sportsbooks are offering political wagering to UK and European bettors, US gamblers hoping to wager on politics are facing uncertain times. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission is ready to deny a request from Kalshi for political betting markets amid an ongoing legal feud with PredictIt.

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