A novelty bet
For as long as I can remember, PaddyPower have opened a book on the Irish Open, giving poker players and fans an opportunity to sweat their favorite players. Presented as a novelty bet, big sums cannot be wagered, presumably for fear that a big position could corrupt the integrity of the tournament. The €9 ($10.35) max bet could also be because information about poker players is not easy to gather for the bookmaker. Either way, this is a source of frustration for some in the community for whom a €100 ($115) flutter would be chump-change.
players can do a maximum of ten bullets across the five starting days
This year, the Irish Open is expected to attract a record-breaking field of over 5,000 entrants. The tournament is a €1,150 ($1,323) buy-in single re-entry per flight, so players can do a maximum of ten bullets across the five starting days. My hunch is that there will be about 2,600 unique players, some who are one and done, but at least a couple of hundred who are willing to empty the clip.
This year’s book is now open and the favorites listed are at 175-1 with available odds of 475-1 on plenty of notables. Some people are quibbling about how short all of these prices are but, to be fair to PaddyPower, they have been stung on a couple of prior occasions.
Channing and Wilson Beat the Bookie
In 2008, poker player and sports bettor Neil Channing lumped £500 ($575) on himself at 100-1 after day one. A couple of days later, he was the last person standing from a starting field of 667 players. Not only did he win the biggest ever Irish Open first prize of €801,400 ($921,854), but he also took the event’s sponsor for another 50 bags.
Last year, the Irish poker prodigy Simon Wilson took down the event, outlasting 4,561 other entrants to claim the €600,000 ($690,183) first prize (the second largest payday in the tournament’s history). A popular figure on the circuit and a man with a lot of friends if his rowdy rail was anything to go by, rumor has it that over a hundred people had placed €10 ($11.50) bets on him at odds of 200-1.
a testament to the excellent structure and the marathon multi-day aspect of the event
The Irish Open actually has an extraordinary list of past winners with professionals dominating the past twenty years. Steve O’Dwyer, Dan Wilson, Simon Wilson, David Docherty, Ryan Mandara, Griffin Benger, and Patrick Clarke are seven of the last ten champions. I believe that this is a testament to the excellent structure and the marathon multi-day aspect of the event. It also shows how experienced players are less likely to feel the pressure and more likely to close with big money at stake. So, in the spirit of fun, I’m not going to criticize the shortness of the odds offered, but instead do my best to find value in the field. Here are my tips!
Ignore the favorites
You currently cannot bet on the defending champion, presumably because all the lads that piled on him at the moment of victory last year have also piled on him at whatever price he opened. Phenomenal as Wilson is, I just don’t think that there is value with him or any of the favorites at 175-1. If I had to take one of the front runners, it would be Steve O’Dwyer, but I just don’t think that price is alluring enough. Benny Glaser, Parker Talbot, Dominik Nitsche, Niall Farrell, David Docherty, and PaddyPower Poker ambassador Dara O’Kearney are all beasts, but I’d need 300-1 to be tempted.
Thirty-one players are currently priced at 225-1, none of whom represent value. Of them, I like EPT Prague champion Padraig O’Neill, the in-form GUKPT London champion Brandon Sheils, and the WPT World Poker Championship 14th and 23rd place finisher Stephen Kehoe the best. At 350-1, I’d take a punt on a bunch of these guys, including Marc MacDonnell, Ludovic Geilich, Cathal Shine, Fintan Hand, Jamie Flynn, and Irish Open ambassador Chris Dowling. Easily the worst value in this group are PokerStars ambassadors Ben Spragg and David Lappin (in that order).
At 275-1, there are 200 players, again none of which are plus-EV wagers, but a few that standout as better punts than others. If I had to choose from this group, I would plum for FPS Paris winner Mateusz Moolhuizen, UKIPT Dublin champion Kevin Killeen, two-time UKIPT Player of the Year Daragh Davey, Eureka Cyprus champion Ankit Ahuja, European Deepstacks double-champion Tommy Geleziunas, and 2013 Irish Open winner Ian Simpson.
The smart money
The online crusher. The underrated grinder. The get-it-quietly merchant. The smart money, if such a thing exists, is going to be placed on excellent players with big prices who fly under the radar. At 375-1 and beyond, we start to see a few of these. We also see a few value spots – like WPT Prime Slovakia champion Fabian Gumz, Irish Poker Festival Millions champion Michel Molenaar, WPT World Championship runner-up Rob Sherwood, Irish WSOP bracelet winner Sean Prendiville, and EPT Prague finalist Conor O’Driscoll. I also quite like Irish legend Annette O’Carroll and Irish up and comer Stephen Campbell at this price.
my top tip is Turlough McHugh
Then we come to the players at 475-1 where more than a couple catch the eye. Scottish veteran Michael Kane and Irishmen Colm Chan, Cory Desmond, and Aidan Quinlan are all a decent price in this category. However, my top tip is Turlough McHugh, who, at 475-1 might be the best bet available. The SCOOP champion and three time Sunday Million finalist has transitioned well to the live felt and has been posting tidy results of late, including his WSOP Circuit Marrakesh third place finish.
The PokerStars and PaddyPower Poker-sponsored Irish Open takes place from March 26 to April 6 in Dublin’s RDS. The Main Event starting days are on Sunday March 29, Wednesday April, Thursday April 2, and Friday April 3. If you want to bet on the winner, you can do so on PaddyPower. If you don’t see the player you like listed, I believe you can request a price. Good luck to all and a reminder to gamble responsibly!
