No cannibalization yet
Despite the traditional gambling sector being at odds with the burgeoning prediction market space, both verticals have seen considerable success recently. Commercial gaming revenue in the US almost reached $19bn for Q3 in 2025, which is the fourth-best quarter since 2022.
prediction markets operator’s revenue is likely to multiply fivefold by 2030
At the same time, Citizens Financial Group analysts told Bloomberg that the prediction markets operator’s revenue is likely to multiply fivefold by 2030 to more than $10bn.
These figures together show that traditional gaming and prediction markets aren’t cannibalizing each other just yet.
Performance is recovering
Commercial gaming operators have been seeing headlines filled with doom and gloom so far in 2025. Nevada, in particular, has seen monthly visitor numbers consistently dropping compared to 2024 figures. A significant reason cited for the slowdown are President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which deterred visitors. That didn’t stop gaming revenue nationwide from rising 7.2% year on year in Q3 though, according to the American Gaming Association (AGA) figures.
believe business conditions will be stronger in the next 6 to 12 months
The AGA’s Vice President of Research, David Forman, believes that consumers are becoming more willing to spend money. The industry association’s report highlighted that 26% of the gaming CEOs who responded to its survey believe business conditions will be stronger in the next 6 to 12 months, marking the most optimistic outlook they’ve had in three years.
Plenty of room to grow
Despite the opposition to prediction markets from the wider gambling industry, it looks like they’re here to stay. Operators like Polymarket and Kalshi have seen significant surges in their traffic volumes in recent times.
Citizens analysts estimate that the industry revenues are about $2bn annually. It noted that Robinhood’s sports trading product is the fastest-growing segment in its history, accounting for approximately 10% of total revenue since its launch in early 2025.
The analysts noted that the majority of interest currently lies in allowing people to bet on sports, even in states where the activity isn’t legal in its traditional form.
forecasts that the product will become a core part of the finance world
Devin Ryan believes that sports are only the tip of the iceberg, saying that the bigger draw in the future will be “prediction markets around things that influence the economy or companies.” He forecasts that the product will become a core part of the finance world, such as being integrated into risk dashboards and used in quantitative models.
