Close to the finish line
The contest to become the new mayor of New York City has been dominating the headlines in recent months, as the Democrat Party’s progressive candidate nominee Zohran Mamdani looks set to defeat former governor Andrew Cuomo, who’s running as an independent.
Mamdani has caused controversy on several occasions for his pro-Palestine views and his pledges to shake up the system by heavily taxing the rich to help the average New Yorker cope with the cost of living.
election taking place on November 4 and early voting already underway
Recent polls show that he has a commanding lead in the campaign. With the election taking place on November 4 and early voting already underway, time is running out for Cuomo, who served as governor between 2011 and 2021 before departing office in the wake of a sexual harassment scandal.
Prediction markets under scrutiny
Many people are now using prediction market platforms like Polymarket as proxies for political polls as they try to gauge the prevailing sentiment in political races. Some New Yorkers reportedly have given up hope on the mayoral election in NYC after seeing that Mamdani had at one point a 95% probability of winning, according to Polymarket.
Billionaire hedge fund owner Bill Ackman took to social media on Tuesday to warn people about how easy it is to manipulate these markets. He urged those interested in the race to not give up hope, mentioning that it only takes “a small amount of capital” to influence the odds. However, it is important to note that Ackman is very publicly opposed to Mamdani.
The 59-year-old reposted a breakdown of betting activity on the election that he said was “evidence of manipulative activity.” A user with $15.6m in an intermediary wallet has consistently spent significant sums when Zohran’s price dropped below $0.93 per contract:
He suggested that the +2000 odds of a Cuomo victory, in contrast to the +800 available on sportsbooks like BetUS, represent good value due to growing momentum for his campaign over the past week. Some X users weren’t impressed by this suggestion, with one person telling Ackman to “bet on Cuomo yourself rather than convincing others to hold the bag.”
A big topic
Ackman has been vocal about not wanting Zohran to win the election. Mamdani has said he doesn’t believe the country should have billionaires because such significant sums of money cause substantial inequality.
has spent at least $1.75m providing funding to anti-Mamdani PACs
Ackman’s social media account is full of reposts urging people to vote for Cuomo and he has spent at least $1.75m providing funding to anti-Mamdani PACs. In recent days, he has tried to convince people that the reason why Zohran has such a strong lead is because Curtis Sliwa has refused to pull out of the race, taking away votes from Cuomo.
The market has now shifted back toward Cuomo a little since Ackman made his X post, with Zohran now holding an 89% chance based on Polymarket activity and 87% on rival platform Kalshi.
This isn’t the first time that prediction market platforms have captured headline shares of a key US political race. Donald Trump’s odds of victory were much higher in the lead-up to November 2024’s presidential election on Polymarket and Kalshi compared to many traditional public polls.
