Researchers from Citizens JMP Securities have revealed that prediction platform Kalshi’s odds for the opening week of NFL action were significantly lower than what regulated sportsbooks offered. They analyzed moneyline and over/under wagers, taking into account transaction fees before coming to their conclusions.
gap widened to 25% and 23%, respectively, for the over/under markets
In the report, the researchers said that their findings contradicted claims that exchanges offer better pricing than fixed-odds sportsbooks. When comparing Friday’s moneyline prices for Week 1 of the new NFL season, Kalshi’s odds were 10% higher than DraftKings and 16% than FanDuel. The gap widened to 25% and 23%, respectively, for the over/under markets. While the prices tightened a bit by the time the early games kicked off on Sunday, there were still significant differences.
Researchers determined that Kalshi’s fees were the reason for the discrepancy, which see users on average pay about $1.63 for 100 moneyline contracts and $1.75 for their over/under wager. They concluded that these results show that there is currently not much of a competitive threat for sportsbooks from prediction sites.
