A new EPL season dawns
It soon comes around, doesn’t it? Even without a major world or continental tournament over the summer to sate the desires of the punters and bettors, the break between seasons appears to get shorter each year. Eighty-two days to be precise.
current champions Liverpool take on AFC Bournemouth
The English Premier League starts this weekend, and for bettors, the routine of scouring the fixture list for value returns. The whole thing kicks off this afternoon (KO 3pm ET) when current champions Liverpool take on AFC Bournemouth at Anfield, followed by a full weekend’s program that concludes with Leeds United vs. Everton on Monday (KO 3pm ET).
But with 38 rounds of games to go, the potential to pick up some great odds, value bets, and big wins is enormous. Finding them? Not so easy.
Can the Blues cause an upset?
So let us help. Let’s take a closer look at the season ahead, not necessarily at the obvious bets, but at some more obscure ones that may produce bigger wins and more excitement.
For the record, Liverpool is a +190 favorite to retain their EPL title, followed by Arsenal (+270), and Manchester City (+350). But where this market gets very interesting is if we just drop down to the bookmakers’ fourth favorite for the title, Chelsea.
Remarkably, the Blues are on offer at a staggering +900, which is even more surprising when we consider that as recently as June, they won the 2025 FIFA World Club Championship.
Chelsea spending big
Since then, they have added to their squad by spending $326m on eight new players, including Joao Pedro from Brighton and Liam Delap from Ipswich, both talented young strikers who will bring goals to a team that finished fourth in 2024-25.
Let’s not also forget that this is a young Chelsea team that is evolving under coach Enzo Maresca, which has now had a full EPL season under his tutelage. They will be better than in 2024-25, more experienced, and have added some quality to their squad, especially in attacking areas.
this is a Chelsea squad capable of amazing things
While the bookmakers don’t appear to see them as genuine title contenders, if they get off to a good start to the season and can carry that momentum forward, this is a Chelsea squad capable of amazing things, maybe even going all the way.
At +900, the Blues of the King’s Road look like fantastic value.
The curse of the promoted teams
At the other end of the table, as per usual, it’s the promoted teams from the Championship who are the favorites to go straight back down, with Sunderland and Burnley pitched at -225 and -250 respectively. Leeds United, formerly a giant of English soccer, is slightly better off at +140 but is, nevertheless, expected to head back whence it came.
Which is all a little depressing for English soccer as a whole – promotion and relegation are key tenets of the country’s soccer pyramid – and no one wants to see the EPL become a closed shop.
The difficulty remains, however, that the financial rewards of being in the EPL make it very difficult for promoted teams to have the extra financial clout to compete. But, soccer being soccer, surprises do happen, and often, a team that’s expected to be at least mid-table will find itself drawn into the relegation scrap. The key for the bettors is picking that team.
Based on the current odds, the bookmakers believe that Brentford is the team most likely to be dragged into the basement battle, and has been pitched at +300, based on losing some star players, including Bryan Mbeumo and manager Thomas Frank.
Tough campaign for the Hammers?
The Bees may indeed struggle for all of those reasons, but 3/1 doesn’t feel like huge value based on the evidence, and instead Graham Potter’s West Ham, at +550 for the drop, looks to be a better bet.
the West Ham squad that struggled at the back end of last season looks a little undercooked
The Hammers have struggled under Potter and have yet to find any sort of rhythm or form under his management. Their work in the summer transfer window has been underwhelming so far, with just $96m spent on three players, so the West Ham squad that struggled at the back end of last season looks a little undercooked at the start of the new one.
If Potter’s recruitment team cannot deliver between now and the start of September, then it could be a long season and that +550 may come into play.
The resurgence of the Toffees
One of the more interesting markets is the top four, given that there is often one team from the mid-table pack that emerges unexpectedly and challenges the so-called big boys.
In recent seasons, Newcastle, Aston Villa, and Brighton have all been challengers and will again look to be in the mix, but this season, there’s a chance that a fallen giant from yesteryear – one that has had some lean times of late – is preparing to re-join the party.
David Moyse’s Everton are listed at a massive +3300 to break into the top four, and while it will take something special for it to happen, special things are happening right now to the Toffees.
New beginnings
After spending 133 years at their iconic stadium Goodison Park, Everton is moving to a brand new, state-of-the-art stadium on the banks of the River Mersey, known as the Hill Dickinson Stadium.
The club hopes that it will usher in a new era for the club, with 52,000 Evertonians sure to create a special atmosphere in their new home. The club’s owners have also done their bit to ensure a successful move, with funding moves for some big names, including Manchester City’s Jack Grealish, who joins on a season-long loan.
a good start to the campaign for Moyes’s men could see them challenge
Everything points to a big season for the blue half of Merseyside, and while +3300 may appear a ridiculously ambitious bet, a good start to the campaign for Moyes’s men could see them challenge in the top half and, who knows, even emerge as an unlikely contender for the top four.
A challenger to Salah and Haaland
In terms of the Golden Boot, the trophy awarded for the league’s top goal scorer, the usual suspects understandably head the betting, with Mo Salah (+650) edged out by favorite Erling Haaland (+150).
In fairness, Salah at 13/2 is very tempting, but so, too, is new Arsenal signing Viktor Gyokeres, especially if the Gunners can go one step further and win this season’s title. If the Swede can win the Golden Boot, then expect the Gunners to win the title.
The sack race is underway…
At the opposite end of the success spectrum, an interesting market that always attracts plenty of interest is one known as the Sack Race, which is the first EPL manager to be sacked.
interesting one is Wolverhampton Wanderers manager, Vítor Pereira
The favorite is Brentford’s rookie manager, Keith Andrews (+300), closely followed by two of the three promoted managers, Scott Parker (Burnley) and Daniel Farke (Leeds), but an interesting one is Wolverhampton Wanderers manager, Vítor Pereira, who is priced as high as +1200.
Given that Wolves managers have, of late, developed a reputation for not lasting a full season, this is definitely one to look out for. West Ham’s Potter at +1000 is another who is worth considering.
In terms of the here and now, for me, the value bet on opening weekend is the +275 on offer for Manchester United to beat Arsenal at Old Trafford on Sunday (KO 11:30am ET).
