Rift widens
The public falling out of US President Donald Trump and Elon Musk has entered the prediction markets arena, with the latter siding with Polymarket over Donald Trump Jr’s Kalshi.
The POTUS’ son is a Kalshi strategic advisor, and the President is backing the firm’s board member Brian Quintenz to become the next head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
internet’s “two top truth seeking apps”
Which means Musk’s recent decision to make Polymarket the Official Prediction Market Provider of his social media platform X appears grudge focused. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan took to X with news of the deal while stating the partnership will make the internet’s “two top truth seeking apps” stronger.
Adding fuel to the feud fire was the fact Polymarket’s fellow New York-based rival Kalshi was all set to be X’s official partner, even announcing the deal only to retract its statement shortly after.
Playing with fire?
The breakup between Trump and Musk has been all over the world media the past week as the pair traded threats and insults on social media.
Could the richest man in the world’s public snubbing of Kalshi while picking a fight with Trump spell danger for Polymarket, though?
With Trump-backed Quintenz nominated for CFTC head and Polymarket facing legal challenges in the US where it is banned, the firm is taking a major risk by siding with Musk.
According to a press release from Coplan’s firm, Polymarket predictions “will be combined with X data to provide live insights, incorporating real-time annotations explaining market moves.”
Essentially, the partnership means X users can place Polymarket bets direct from the social media platform.
Kalshi carries on
Instead of licking its wounds over the X snub, Kalshi is offering multiple markets on the Musk vs Trump fallout. These include Trump Unfollows Musk, Trump Sues Elon in 2025, and USA Bans X.
Kalshi is legal in all 50 US states, having fought off state regulators in Nevada and New Jersey after the CFTC sided with the prediction market provider on its federal right to offer such markets.
