Gambling figures questioned
The UK Gambling Commission (UKGC) has come under scrutiny from the UK’s statistics watchdog amid concerns that it could be overestimating the number of problem gamblers in the country.
The Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) published a full review of the Gambling Survey for Great Britain (GSGB) after there were several claims that the methods used to collect and interpret the data were potentially flawed.
stopped short of accusing the UKGC of any breach of statistical standards
In the review, the OSR identified four areas where improvement should be made in order to better adhere to the Code of Practice for Statistics. However, it stopped short of accusing the UKGC of any breach of statistical standards.
Overestimations
The GSGB has often shown far higher levels of gambling addiction in the UK than in comparable surveys, such as the Health Survey for England (HSE.)
The UKGC has historically credited this discrepancy to the “social desirability bias,” which claims that people will often under-report behavior with a negative perception, such as gambling addiction, when being interviewed face-to-face.
there is a non-negligible risk that they substantially over-state the true level of gambling”
In a review of the GSGB in 2024, Professor Patrick Sturgis warned that “there is a non-negligible risk that they substantially over-state the true level of gambling and gambling harm in the population.” Among the potential concerns was that response propensity will be higher amongst gamblers when gambling is mentioned as the focus of the survey in the invitation letter.
This is because we know that people are more likely to take part in a survey if the topic is personally salient to them. This would help to explain why a survey that is explicitly about gambling obtains a higher response rate amongst gamblers than a survey that is generically about “health.”
The OSR warned that these caveats, while included in the technical report, were not prominently displayed throughout to clearly inform readers of the uncertainty surrounding the data.
UKGC response slammed
Responding to the report, UKGC director of research and statistics Ben Haden said: “We welcome the findings from OSR, both the public statement regarding casework they have received in relation to GSGB and their overall review of the GSGB.
“We are pleased they recognize the huge amount of work that the team has put into developing and delivering the largest survey of its kind in the world. We also welcome OSR’s recommendations for further action, which closely align with work that we already have underway.”
The UKGC has begun implementing some of the report already, updating user guidance and commencing with plans to test some of the possible issues with the survey’s methodology.
However, the response was dismissed as failing to admit to their failings in other quarters. “One would be hard-pressed to find any acceptance of [the] criticisms in the Gambling Commission’s statement on the review, which perceives nothing but praise for its endeavors,” said analysts at Regulus Partners, a long-term critic of the UKGC.
“The OSR review is a golden opportunity for the Gambling Commission to do the right thing — to show that it has listened by acknowledging past missteps. Its initial response is not encouraging. It has either misinterpreted the OSR’s review or chosen to misrepresent it — neither of which can foster trust. Those who whitewash criticism are unlikely to learn from it.”
