When the white smoke emerged from the Sistine Chapel on Thursday, people were sure the new pope would be Pietro Parolin. Or Luis Antonio Tangle. Or Matteo Maria Zuppi. Or any one of several other people. But not Robert Francis Prevost.
For bettors, and really the world at large, Prevost wasn’t even on the radar. But sure enough, Prevost’s fellow cardinals chose him to succeed Pope Francis. Now named Pope Leo XIV, the Chicago native is the first American to hold the esteemed title.
Parolin was the favorite to become the next pontiff on Thursday morning, sitting at 26% on the Kalshi prediction market and over 30% on traditional betting sites Bet365, William Hill, and Betfair. When the white smoke appeared, his odds jumped to about 70% on Kalshi.
Tagle was the second favorite on Kalshi at 21% and Pierbattista Pizzaballa was next at 10% (that’s probably for the best – we wouldn’t want to lose that amazing name). Nobody else had odds greater than single digits.
odds were lower than 2%
But almost nobody saw Prevost’s election coming. On both Kalshi and Polymarket, his odds were lower than 2%. Only sickos would have bet on the first American-born pope.
But those sickos did exist. One Polymarket user named “JustPunched” wagered $1,059.52 that Prevost would emerge from the conclave and made a profit of $63,650.65. On Kalshi, someone won $52,641 on a $526 bet. Six Polymarket bettors profited $20,000 or more.
Polymarket and Kalshi generated a total of $40.4m in bets on the papal outcome.
Though Prevost was an unexpected choice, the fact that a betting market longshot became pope is not unprecedented. In fact, Sam Eaton, UK manager at Oddschecker, told the USA Today earlier this week that Jorge Mario Bergoglio, who became Pope Francis, was going off at 50-1 odds in March 2013, just two days before he was elected.
