Betting Man City is a _____ idea?
Manchester City has earned the right to be called the most dominant soccer team in the world, regularly dominating opponents at home and abroad.
City is a -155 favorite to win the English Premier League (EPL) at FanDuel sportsbook. If they fulfill the oddsmakers’ prognostications, it will be their fourth straight league title and sixth in the last seven seasons, a feat that even Sir Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United never accomplished.
City bears the responsibility of their overwhelming dominance every time they take the field
“With great power comes great responsibility” is one of the greatest phrases to come from Hollywood. In this case, City bears the responsibility of their overwhelming dominance every time they take the field.
All this raises the important question: is betting on the Citizens every game a direct path to profit? VegasSlotsOnline News dove into the numbers to figure out exactly what it will take for them to achieve profitability on the sportsbooks in the upcoming EPL campaign.
Looking at last season
City was pushed to the brink by Arsenal in the 2022-23 EPL season, but used a late-season comeback to push five points clear and win the title. They both lost and signed several players during the offseason, but enter the new year with lofty expectations all the same.
Across all 38 games of the last campaign, City was an average favorite of about -408 ($408 to win $100). They were also about a -449 moneyline favorite in the matches they won.
Using these odds, anyone that risked $5 betting on the Manchester City moneyline every match they played would have roughly $171.08. That sounds nice, except that a $5 moneyline wager on all 38 games would mean that the bettor risked $190 over the course of the season. That represents about a -10% return on investment and a loss of 3.78 units (units are a bettor’s standard bet amount).
The takeaway from this is that although Man City finished with a record of 28-5-5 and won the EPL title, they were not profitable on the moneyline by blindly betting them. Key negative results (draws or losses) against Nottingham Forest, Brentford (twice), and Everton significantly hurt their chances at profitability.
they need to win 31.1 matches to break even
FanDuel had City as a -175 favorite to win the league during the last preseason, which means that, based on their odds to win the title this year, their individual match odds should be fairly similar to what they were last year. Assuming they are again an average of a -408 favorite, they need to win 31.1 matches to break even. Since it’s impossible to win part of a match, that means that 31 wins will lead to a marginal loss, and 32 wins would put them in the black.
Future projections
The takeaway from the above data is that as strong of a side as Man City was – the best in Europe, at that – it was a losing team when it comes to defeating the sportsbooks, proving once again that Vegas wasn’t built by winners.
So, what are Manchester City’s chances of being kinder to their betting backers when the new season gets underway?
Here’s the problem: as mentioned previously, City needs to win about 32 matches, assuming the same odds average, for them to generate a profit for moneyline bettors. The issue is that that has only been accomplished three times and would tie the record for most wins in an EPL season.
they need to tie a league record just to build $5.52 in profit or a 2.9% return on investment
The optimist would say that Man City has hit 32 wins twice (along with Liverpool once), while the pessimist would say that they need to tie a league record just to build $5.52 in profit or a 2.9% return on investment.
In the improbable event that City puts the “invincible” 2003-04 Arsenal team to shame and wins all 38 matches, they would still only result in $42.18 in profit (assuming the $5 unit size), or a 22.2% ROI. Sharper bettors would be better off finding that type of profit in a much smaller batch of picks, specifically with ones that offer a better risk-return ratio.
All of this goes to say that simply siding with Man City is not a direct path to profit. Betting on them to win the title is a simpler and more proven way to lead to a profit, given their recent dominance in the league, though teams such as Arsenal, Man United, and Newcastle or lining up to take their shot at the throne.