Dramatic Swings in NFL Playoff Betting Odds Define 2022/23 Season

  • The NFL has just one week left in its regular season before the playoffs
  • Jaguars and Steelers odds have shifted greatly since early December
  • The Jags are -285 to win the division, Steelers are +450 to reach the playoffs
  • Sportsbooks think the NFC’s Lions and Packers also have a strong chance
Playoff game in the NFL
Entering the final week of the NFL regular season, several teams have seen their chances of reaching the playoffs upgraded by sportsbooks. [Image: Shutterstock.com]

Frenzied NFL betting odds 

The 2022/23 NFL season has certainly fulfilled its excitement quota so far, offering Cinderella stories, breakout individual performances, and ever-changing betting odds.

several teams have put their fans through the wringer

One of the most exciting stories to monitor has been the ongoing battle to qualify for the playoffs. Even with seven spots available in each conference, several teams have put their fans through the wringer with a constant fluctuation in their chances of earning a postseason berth.

VegasSlotsOnline News has summarized some of the most exciting and heartbreaking changes in playoff odds with just over one week left in the regular season. 

The AFC

Every division has produced at least one guaranteed playoff participant except for one: the AFC South. The Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8) are one game ahead of the Tennessee Titans and wrap up their season by hosting their arch-rivals on Saturday Night Football. According to DraftKings, the former is a -285 favorite to win the division and reach the playoffs, but that is only after a recent drastic change in opinion.

From +910 to -285

On December 6, several top sportsbooks revealed the Jags as an average +910 to make the playoffs. From +910 to -285 is a drastic turnaround, especially for a team that finished last season 3-14 and made the playoffs once in the last 14 years. Tennessee, meanwhile, has plummeted from -1700 to +245 during the same time frame. The team has now gone from a 7-3 start to losing six straight games after a recent defeat at the hands of Dallas:

Another AFC squad that has completely flipped its season on its head is Pittsburgh. A +5000 candidate to make the playoffs as recently as December 13, the Steelers’ odds have skyrocketed to +450 thanks to a recent win streak. They need to win their final game against the Cleveland Browns and hope the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots lose their final game to qualify for the postseason.

Coach Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in his 15 years with the Steelers. With his team sitting at 8-8, he has yet another chance to add to his immaculate streak, even if it does not result in the ultimate goal of competing for the Super Bowl.

The NFC

As miraculous as the stories in the AFC have been, there have been several just-as-improbable tales in the NFC.

The Detroit Lions are one of the most notable recent climbers within the conference. On November 8, the then-2-6 Lions had a +1750 chance of making the playoffs according to sportsbooks, yet they are now just one win and a Seattle Seahawks loss away from punching their ticket. DraftKings now has Detroit as a +900 candidate after beating the Chicago Bears on Sunday:

Not to be outdone, the Green Bay Packers—who play in the same division as the Lions and had odds of +1200 to reach the playoffs in November—are now also one game away from securing the NFC’s seven seed at +175. With a win next weekend, they would have a better conference record (and the tiebreaker) over the Seahawks and would squeak their way into the playoffs. 

Aaron Rodgers has a career 18-7 record against the Lions

Green Bay can also kill two birds with one stone since their Week 18 matchup is against the same Lions team they are chasing. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has a career 18-7 record against the Lions and is also 89-22-1 at home, which gives fans reason for optimism. 

The Packers are early 4.5-point favorites to knock off Detroit, while the Seahawks are 6.5-point favorites over the Los Angeles Rams.  

The Packers’, Lions’, and Seahawks’ chances to make the playoffs have not come without sacrifice. The Washington Commanders, -733 to reach the postseason on November 22, have already been mathematically eliminated from contention.