Pulling ahead
NFL Super Bowl odds have seen movement at the top after a fast and furious Week 6 during which two of the top contenders faced off, while the league’s only undefeated team picked up another win.
The Buffalo Bills are still the favorite to win the Super Bowl at +290, according to FanDuel, while the Philadelphia Eagles are now +550 after their win over the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. The Kansas City Chiefs, fresh off a home loss to the Bills, are +800.
many experts see this largely as a three-horse race
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1100), Minnesota Vikings (+1400), and San Francisco 49ers (+1700) round out the list of the next-closest challengers. However, many experts see this largely as a three-horse race.
Super Bowl Odds leaders
The biggest game from this past weekend was the Chiefs-Bills game, played in Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. Buffalo won 24-20 on the back of 329 yards and three touchdowns from Josh Allen, while Patrick Mahomes threw for 338 yards and two touchdowns, but coughed up two interceptions.
The Chiefs defeated the Bills 42-36 in overtime in a playoff classic last season in what has become a modern rivalry. Although a Week 6 matchup would normally be inconsequential, this Sunday’s was not for several reasons.
Sunday’s result could be used to settle a tiebreaker
First, the Bills needed a psychological edge over the Chiefs. KC has appeared in the last four AFC Championship Games and only lost to the Allen-led Bills one time in the Mahomes era. In addition, the two foes are battling for home-field advantage and a first-round bye in the playoffs, and Sunday’s result could be used to settle a tiebreaker.
In the NFC, the Eagles used a 20-point second quarter to catapult a 26-17 win over the Cowboys. Dallas had been on a four-game winning streak with increasing margins of victory in every game, while Philly, despite being undefeated, had been looking more vulnerable.
The Eagles’ win was thanks largely to outstanding defense. Dallas QB Cooper Rush had not thrown one interception in four games, but ended Sunday night with three as Philly’s secondary completely locked down the outside.
The NFC favorites will not play a team with a winning record for another four weeks when they meet the (currently) 3-2-1 Indianapolis Colts on the road. Until then, it is hard to imagine them losing and falling behind in the odds.
Analyzing matchups
The AFC regular season has effectively been a forgone conclusion since the offseason. The Bills and Chiefs led the league in Super Bowl odds and were always forecast to meet in the championship game. Even if the Chiefs’ odds have slipped slightly, they have too much experience and talent to be considered anything other than outright contenders.
The NFC was and still is a much more faceless conference. Philadelphia, now the favorites to compete for the Lombardi Trophy, entered the season with +2200 Super Bowl odds. The Buccaneers, Los Angeles Rams, Green Bay Packers, and 49ers were all comfortably ahead.
still concerns over the Eagles despite their blistering start
There are still concerns over the Eagles despite their blistering start. Their inexperienced QB is not known as a reliable downfield thrower of the ball, and they have lost almost every player that was part of their 2018 Super Bowl run.
A future Super Bowl between the Bills and Eagles would heavily favor the former. Allen and company can move the ball down the field with unmatched pace and have the physicality to sustain Philly’s defensive onslaught.
Meanwhile, the Bills’ defense is fast and strong enough to cope with the Eagles’ relentless running game. They also have excellent pass rushers and would cause the elusive Jalen Hurts problems.
A Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl would look much different. The Chiefs’ passing game is focusing more on short and intermediate routes instead of long bombs to Tyreek Hill (now on the Miami Dolphins). They also have one of the better run defenses in the league, which could turn the game into a time of possession battle.
The Super Bowl odds are still fluctuating, but with less severity than they were earlier in the season.