Changes at the top
The odds of UK Prime Minister Liz Truss making it through the year continue to dwindle following her removal of Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng Friday.
Truss will do well to outlast the lifespan of a mayfly at this rate”
“Things continue to go from bad to worse for Liz Truss and the Tories, and we’re now looking at one of the biggest swings in recent history between elections,” said Alex Apati of Ladbrokes, a British gambling company. “The latest odds suggest Truss will do well to outlast the lifespan of a mayfly at this rate.”
Truss took over for Boris Johnson after he resigned in the summer amid political turbulence and scandals. Her inability, however, to swing public opinion for various reasons, including poor economic management and unpopular stances, make her a candidate for a swift exit from office, according to multiple sources.
Odds do not favor Truss
Truss’ latest move to fire Kwarteng and replace him with Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt was made to help push her low-tax agenda. Hunt backed parliament member Rishi Sunak during the Tory leadership election.
Truss is still hoping to create a “low-tax, high-wage, high-growth economy” but accepted fault for moving too quickly, causing instability in the economy. She also made a 180-degree pivot and abandoned a plan to increase the corporate tax from 19% to 25%.
“It is clear that parts of our mini-budget went further and faster than markets were expecting so the way we are delivering our mission right now has to change,” Truss said during a press conference.
Ladbrokes had Truss at (-163) odds of being replaced before the year is over
As a result of these oversights, as well as the overall negative public sentiment, Ladbrokes had Truss at (-163) odds of being replaced before the year is over. Meanwhile, political betting exchange smarkets has given a 56% chance that Truss will be gone before 2023.
As of Thursday, only 17% of people approve of the job that Truss is doing, while 59% disapprove, according to Politico. The Labour Party has also climbed to 50% voting intention, its highest since 2002 and well ahead of the Conservative Party’s 24%.
Critics and challengers
Despite the negative signs, Truss intends to carry on in her position.
“I am absolutely determined to see through what I have promised,” Truss said after being asked if she would leave office. “I want to be honest, this is difficult, but we will get through this storm. And we will deliver the strong and sustained growth that can transform the prosperity of our country for generations to come.”
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, one of Truss’ opponents, is calling for an upheaval in government, not just a few replacements.
Liz Truss’ reckless approach has crashed the economy”
“Changing the chancellor doesn’t undo the damage made in Downing Street,” Starmer tweeted. “Liz Truss’ reckless approach has crashed the economy, causing mortgages to skyrocket, and has undermined Britain’s standing on the world stage. We need a change in Government.”
A list of potential replacements for Truss includes both Sunak and Hunt, who just replaced the outgoing chancellor. The next general election will be held no later than January 2025, although Truss will have a hard time lasting that long if she can’t stop the bleeding.