PredictIt: Donald Trump Given 45% Chance of Becoming Next Republican Presidential Candidate

  • Trump is ahead of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former VP Mike Pence
  • The 45th President is returning to Washington Tuesday to speak at a Republican convention
  • When last seen, Trump's approval rating was its worst ever at 29%
  • Politico reported that Trump’s allies are eager for him to return
Donald Trump
Donald Trump is the betting favorite to land the upcoming Republican Presidential nomination. [Image: Shutterstock.com]

Speaking in D.C.

Former President Donald Trump is the betting favorite to become the Republican presidential nominee just a few years after his failed reelection bid.

his first trip back since vacating the White House

The power shift coincides with Trump’s impending return to Washington Tuesday, his first trip back since vacating the White House. The 45th President will be speaking at the “America First Agenda Summit,” organized by top Trump advisers and cabinet members, where guests will discuss the upcoming Republican agenda, whether that be led by Trump or another presidential hopeful.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is ten points behind Trump, according to PredictIt. Trump’s former Vice President, Mike Pence, is a distant third, with just a 5% chance of winning the nomination.

Donald Trump on the rise

Trump’s upcoming speech comes during the week of a Federal Reserve interest rate decision amid rising inflation. The former “Apprentice” star first entered politics on a mostly fiscal platform, which stood out to his followers. He has also been critical of current President Joe Biden’s grasp on the US economy, recently attacking his allowance of a “recession.”

The America First Policy institute, a namesake of Trump’s campaign, is sponsoring the midweek summit. The non-profit group is led by Brooke Rollins, Trump’s former head of the Domestic Policy Council, while former National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow serves as vice chair.

Donald Trump is still yet to officially put his name in the hat despite repeatedly teasing a run

Donald Trump is still yet to officially put his name in the hat despite repeatedly teasing a run in 2024. His holding out could be out of caution as he would have to submit to campaign finance rules otherwise.

The former Commander in Chief’s odds of winning the GOP nomination have been mostly unaffected by the ongoing January 6th investigation and hearings. After a primetime hearing caused a 1% downtick on July 21, the brash New Yorker (Floridian?) is back to 45%, while DeSantis is at 35%, and Pence 5%.

Other prominent names on the list include former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, Former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, and Utah Senator Mitt Romney.

When last seen

Trump’s initial rise as a politician came as a shock to many. His loud-mouthed style went against the grain for modern politicians, but he delivered on his promise to shake up Washington.

The 76-year-old had his share of scandals and controversies before and after he was sworn in. A few standouts include when he openly mocked a disabled reporter, the firing of former FBI Director James Coney, who was investigating alleged collusion between Trump officials and Russia during the 2016 election, and most recently and infamously, inciting an insurrection at the Capitol.

According to ABC, at least 2,000 pro-Trump constituents made it inside the capitol building, where Senators were assembled to conduct the ceremony to count the electoral votes from the November 2020 election. 

Many GOP voters were under the mistaken impression, per the suggestion of Trump himself, that election results had been falsified. They gathered en masse to protest any wrongdoings, despite objections from Pence and other high-ranking members of Trump’s team.

Trump has denied any wrongdoing in what a bipartisan committee has since labeled an attempted coup.

Trump’s final approval rating of 29% was the lowest of his tenure

According to Pew Research Center, Trump’s final approval rating of 29% was the lowest of his tenure. A majority of Americans also wanted him to retire after he left office.

“The new survey by Pew Research Center, conducted Jan. 8-12 among 5,360 U.S. adults, including 4,040 who say they voted in the presidential election, finds that a sizable majority of Americans do not want Trump to remain a major political figure after he leaves office,” said Pew in their published findings. “About two-thirds (68%) say Trump should not continue to be a major national political figure for many years to come; just 29% say he should remain a major figure in U.S. politics.”

Despite previous numbers, Politico reported that Trump’s allies are anxiously awaiting his game plan.