Sportsbooks Give Boris Johnson 38% Chance of Regaining UK PM Job

  • Liz Truss lasted just 45 days as Prime Minister before stepping down on Thursday
  • Boris Johnson reportedly has support from right-wing Tories and major party donors
  • Rishi Sunak is the current favorite to be the next Prime Minister, at odds of -125
  • Sportsbooks correctly predicted Truss would lose power before the end of 2022
Boris Johnson
Sportsbooks are giving Boris Johnson a 38% chance of being the next UK prime minister. [Image: Shutterstock.com]

Boris is back in contention

There’s never a dull moment in UK politics. Liz Truss lasted just 45 days as Prime Minister before stepping down on Thursday. Her short reign was marred by plenty of economic and political turmoil which ultimately led to her leaving office.

odds of +163 to regain the role he gave up just over three months ago

Attention is now turning to her replacement, with sportsbooks saying that the previous Prime Minister Boris Johnson has a 38% chance of getting back to 10 Downing Street. Irish bookmaker Paddy Power has given the former PM odds of +163 to regain the role he gave up just over three months ago.

According to The Independent, Johnson is interested in throwing his hat into the ring once more and appears to have support from many right-wing Conservative MPs, as well as major party donors. The Conservative Party outlined that candidates will need the support of at least 100 MPs in order to be under consideration.

Some of the main candidates

Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak is the current favorite to be the next Prime Minister with sportsbooks. Paddy Power gives him a 56% chance of taking power at odds of -125. The 42-year-old was the main opponent to Truss when she was vying to take over from Boris. He ultimately missed out on getting sufficient support but will fancy his chances this time around.

Boris Johnson served as Prime Minister from July 23, 2019 to September 6, 2022, stepping down following a mass resignation of government ministers.

Third in the betting at the moment is Penny Mordaunt, with sportsbooks giving her a 15% chance of success at +550. She initially contested party leadership after Johnson stepped away, but did not get enough support in the final voting. Mordaunt ultimately endorsed Truss and was appointed as Leader of the House of Commons when she became PM.

As per the sportsbook odds, it looks unlikely that anyone outside of Sunak, Johnson, and Mordaunt will get their chance as the next Prime Minister. Fourth place in the betting is Ben Wallace, who has been given a 5% chance of success at +2000 with Paddy Power.

The crystal ball

While sportsbooks do not always get it right with their betting markets, they can sometimes be a good indicator as to who is most likely to win a political race. They certainly were right about Truss’ longevity as prime minister. Odds from earlier this week projected that Truss would no longer be prime minister by 2023.

Truss was actually a real long shot for the role

That said, prior to Johnson’s resignation from the PM job, sportsbooks had Mordaunt as the odds on favorite to replace him. Truss was actually a real long shot for the role, with Sunak and Sajid Javid both seen as much more likely candidates.

The UK gambling industry will likely see the latest round of political turmoil as another headwind for gambling reform. The white paper for the UK government’s review of gambling legislation has faced delays numerous times as a result of political uncertainty. It is hard to know when or if the white paper will ever get published at this stage.