Odds: Donald Trump Has a 60% Chance to Win 2024 Presidential Election

  • Biden is second to Trump in odds as a two-to-one underdog
  • Trump lost the popular vote the year he was elected president
  • Biden is refusing an upcoming cognitive test at his yearly exam
  • The majority of Americans disapprove of Biden’s performance
Donald Trump entering NY courthouse
Donald Trump is slowly growing as the favorite to win the upcoming presidential election. [Image: Shutterstock.com]

Odds for president favor Donald Trump

The race to be the 47th president in United States history is on, and according to betting odds, former President Donald Trump is the frontrunner.

BetUS sportsbook gives Trump -140 odds to become the second president ever and first since Grover Cleveland in 1892 to serve nonconsecutive terms. President Biden is a +200 underdog, followed by Michelle Obama (+700), California Gov. Gavin Newsom (+1000), Vice President Kamala Harris (+1600), and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

implied probability of 58.33%

Trump’s -140 odds equal an implied probability of 58.33%. Biden, who is next closest, has an implied probability of 33.33%.

Controversy at the top 

Trump was a divisive figure from the moment he popped up in the presidential race in 2015. After once polling below 1% support, he defied the odds and expectations and replaced Barack Obama in the White House in January 2017.

Trump’s tenure matched his persona and was rife with controversy, whether it be his handling of foreign policy, laissez-faire approach to COVID, or his role in the January 6 riots at the Capitol. 

Trump, who defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 306 electoral votes to 232, but had nearly 3 million fewer total votes, was ousted by Joe Biden in 2021 despite many voters feeling he was not the optimal president. Instead, they voted him into office under an “anyone but Trump” approach.

As the Trump resistance starts to wear off and questions of Biden’s mental standing swirl, many anti-Trump voters are beginning to succumb to reality.

It’s crisis fatigue, for sure.”

“We’re kind of, like, crises-ed out,” said Shannon Caseber, a security guard in Pittsburgh, per the New York Times. “It’s crisis fatigue, for sure.”

Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House Press Secretary, announced last week that President Biden will not take a cognitive test during his upcoming medical exam. Although she cited remarks from Biden’s doctor that suggested his daily duties and job requirements were evidence of his mental standing, many took it as another sign that he is not fit to continue in office.

Russian president Vladimir Putin also said last week he prefers that Biden continue as US President, which inspired varying remarks.

Candidates and opinions

As Trump prepares to potentially reclaim his seat on Pennsylvania Avenue, he first has to pay off $355m owed as the result of the ruling of a fraud trial.

New York Justice Arthur Engoron handed the fine to Trump, his company, and business associates, after he was found guilty of inflating the value of his assets to procure favorable bank loans. He was also banned from doing business in New York for three years. Trump plans to appeal the ban.

Polling company FiveThirtyEight found that only 39.4% of Americans approve of the job Biden has done, while 55.9% disapprove. That’s lower at this point in his tenure than his seven immediate predecessors, including Trump (43% approval) and three Democrats, Obama (48.2%), Bill Clinton (48.9%), and Jimmy Carter (56.5%). 

“terrified” about the result of the upcoming election

Despite being third in odds, Michelle Obama has not declared that she is running for office. The closest she came was sharing that she was “terrified” about the result of the upcoming election during a podcast released on January 8.

Newsom said he had “sub-zero interest” in running for president despite his foray into a larger spotlight after battles with the governors of Texas and Florida.

Haley, the first woman of color to be a major Republican presidential candidate, is well into the race for the presidency. She said Sunday that she believes either her or VP Harris will be the president in 2025.

Other notable names on the list of candidates receiving betting odds include 2016 runner-up Hillary Clinton (+10000), right-wing political commentator Tucker Carlson (+25000), and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson (+25000), among many others.

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