Update: Joe Biden is once again the favorite with UK sportsbooks to win the presidential race, as per early afternoon (GMT) odds on Wednesday. Biden is available at around 2/5 versus odds of 5/2 for a Trump victory. Betting odds will continue to shift as the race tightens between the two candidates and more state results come into focus.
Changing tides
After Americans went to the polls on Tuesday to place their votes on who they want to be the next US president, Donald Trump went from presidential race underdog to odds-on favorite with UK sportsbooks overnight.
With a number of key battleground states looking to be a lot closer than many polls and experts were predicting, Trump’s odds of winning stood at 4/5 early on Wednesday. Opponent Joe Biden was the strong favorite in the weeks leading up to the election; his odds of victory were at 1/2 before the end of voting. However, Biden drifted to an 11/10 shot on Wednesday morning.
Trump rose to a 69% chance of winning at one stage overnight
While Biden had a 70% probability of winning just a few days ago, Trump rose to a 69% chance of winning at one stage overnight.
The early returns in the Senate race show that no betting underdog has yet upset the odds, with sportsbooks so far correctly predicting the results.
Too close to call
The current president’s chance of victory has since fallen to 58%, as the race looks like it will go down to the wire. Trump has won Florida and Ohio, two large electoral vote states in which Biden was thought to have made some inroads, making it no easy victory for the former Vice President. As a result, a lot of people started betting on a Trump victory.
The outcome of voting in other battleground states is still under close observation. The counts are slow in these regions, with Pennsylvania officials warning on Wednesday morning that it could take several days for the counting to finish.
Trump already claims he has won
Democratic challenger Biden is still confident about his chances, stating in his election night speech: “We feel good about where we are.” President Trump already claims he has won despite ongoing counts.
Massive betting interest
The 2020 US presidential election has received massive interest from bettors. Forecasts estimate that there will be at least £1bn ($1.3bn) worth of bets on the political event.
The UK’s Betfair Exchange expects to receive a handle of over £400m ($517.5m), greatly bypassing its intake for the 2016 election. Betfair’s intake in recent days included a record-breaking £1m ($1.3m) bet on Joe Biden to win.
According to The Sun, a British gambler and former banker allegedly bet $5m on Trump winning the election with private sportsbooks in Curacao, at odds of 37/20. If Trump wins, the payout would be $14.25m. The bettor supposedly spoke with “Trump camp insiders” before making the wager.